Level of immigrants in U.S. could surpass 19th century mark

By Sam Roberts, IHT



If present trends continue, within two decades the proportion of immigrants in the United States will surpass the peak reached more than a century ago, a new analysis concludes.

The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan research group, estimates that sometime between 2020 and 2025, the foreign-born will account for 15 percent of the American population, or more than 1 in 7 residents. They represented about 12 percent of the population in 2005, 14.7 percent in 1910 and about 15 percent in the late 19th century.

Trends further ahead are typically harder to predict. Still, the Pew Center projects that in 2050, 19 percent of Americans will be foreign-born; that the share of Hispanic residents will more than double to 29 percent from 14 percent in 2005; and that the proportion of Asians will almost double, from 5 percent to 9 percent.

The center estimates that the total population will grow to 438 million in 2050, with immigrants accounting for 82 percent, or 117 million, of the increase.

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The native-born Hispanic population, already about 60 percent of all Hispanic residents, would rise to 67 percent in 2050.
Asians: from 58 percents in 2005 to 47 percent by 2050 of foreign born.

The analysis, by Jeffrey Passel and D'Vera Cohn, projects a higher rate of immigration than a number of federal agencies do. But it concludes, as the federal agencies have, that the share of blacks in the population will remain roughly steady - about 13 percent in 2050, compared with 12 percent in 2005 - while the proportion of non-Hispanic whites will shrink below half the population, to 47 percent.